Monday, October 09, 2006

North Korea - it's all about the oil (sound familiar)?

Look out for unbelievable shock, outrage and political grandstanding upon North Korea's nuclear test. The country's foreign minister has previously said the coiuntry would NEVER be the first to fire nuclear weapons but this stance is unlikely to surface as world leaders condemn this morning's nuclear weapon test and the world's self-righteous media hypothsises how North Korea is likely to deliver its new weapons.
Shame on the BBC, for example, for this little information box:
North Korea: * Believed to have 'handful' of nuclear weapons
* But not thought to have any small enough to put in a missile
* Could try dropping from airplane, though world watching closely

For a different view try Blue Skies China's story on North Korea's dependence on Chinese oil.
Beijing has previously used its oil exports to DPRK [North Korea] to coerce participation in the six-party talks (a forum for DPRK, South Korea, Russia, China, Japan and the US to set out their positions on DPRK's nuclear weapons programme). The DRPK's test today will allow China a gracious exit from existing oil supply deals - oil sanctions are likely - and thus force DPRK's hand in developing its own oil resources.
But here's where the politics gets interesting. To develop these offshore resources, DPRK needs China's offshore oil experience and an agreement on political boundary setting in the waters between the Korean peninsula and China. Previous efforts to develop the fields with South Korea, the UK, Malaysia, Sweden and Australia have all dried up and Beijing is considered DPRK's last hope in getting this offshore energy out of the ocean.
While a DPRK with its own secure oil supply would weaken China's sanctioning hand in future six-party gamesmanship, a share of the 22 billion barrels may prove irresistable, and China is likely to put political differences aside to get its drills in the water. The prize for China would be a greater share of the offshore reserves than it might have obtained from a six-party compliant DPRK. Boundary lines have not yet been drawn and it seems likely, given DPRK's snub of the international community, that China would be able to claim moral high ground and thus the lion's share of offshore waters, leaving North Korea with just enough for its own needs.

And yes, I'm plugging my own blog. Seems like better behaviour than most world leaders these days.

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